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Forbes
06-08-2025
- Business
- Forbes
U.S. Has Top 2 Surpluses With Switzerland Ever As Trump Threatens Tariffs
The United States has run its two largest monthly trade surpluses with Switzerland ever in the last three months, according to my analysis of the U.S. Census Bureau data released Tuesday. This comes as President Trump plans to institute extraordinary 39% tariffs against Swiss imports, among the highest proposed against any country, part of his effort to tame the U.S. trade deficit. The tariffs are scheduled to go into effect on Thursday. Switzerland's president and a delegation of Swiss officials were planning to meet with administration officials to seek a way to reduce the tariff rate before then. If you are looking for a textbook example of the disruption and uncertainty Trump has created this year with his trade war against the world – certainly abetted by ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza – look no further than Switzerland. Indeed, despite those two surpluses, on a year-to-date basis, the U.S. deficit with Switzerland is the sixth largest in the world through June, according to the latest data available from the Census Bureau. It is safe to assume that this is how Switzerland found itself on Trump's radar. That's because in just the first five months of 2025, the United States registered not only its two largest surpluses with Switzerland – $4.24 billion in May, $2.14 billion in April – it also registered its three largest-ever deficits with Switzerland: After those first three months, the outsized imports dropped precipitously. Nevertheless, U.S. trade with Switzerland is up 171.45% halfway through the year, compared to 9.57% for the world. It ranked as the nation's No. 18 trade partner one year ago. Today, it ranks No. 7. What is going on? And what makes U.S. trade with Switzerland such a textbook example of certainty or lack thereof? It's because of what gets traded. It's because of gold. It's because of what gold represents to Wall Street and the investment community worldwide when there is uncertainty in global markets: insurance. Gold doesn't only go up in demand. It also goes up in value when there is uncertainly. The price of gold has risen about 40% in the last year alone. It's not just Trump's trade war with the world creating the skittishness, though it is unprecedented in its scale and erratic deployment. There are other issues that have created unease, including domestic decisions such as the elimination of inspectors general across federal agencies, an increasingly tough immigration policy, and the decision to pardon or commute the sentences of more than 1,500 people charged, convicted or sentenced for the Jan. 6, 2021 events at the U.S. Capitol. There have also been international decisions. Trump's second withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord, the dismantling of U.S. AID, and the withdrawal from the World Health Organization have signaled a retreat from global alliances and norms. This, too, contributes to the sense of a world in flux, a sentiment that drives investors toward safe-haven assets. To the investment community, the issue is not whether these decisions and others are good or bad – though Trump's approval rating is historically low in nationwide polling – but the uncertainty combined with the sheer scope and speed of the changes. It against this backdrop that the United States, in just the first five months of the year, remarkably reported its three largest monthly deficits with Switzerland (January, February and March) and its two largest surpluses (April and May). The United States also reported a trade surplus with Switzerland in June, albeit a smaller one. It was the 61st largest of 66 trade surpluses in the last 270 months. There have been other aberrations in the trade data, and I have reported on a number of them previously. The question now, with three straight monthly surpluses and the deficit decreasing, is this: What does Trump do? The issue with Switzerland, despite its importance in U.S. imports of pharmaceuticals, is all about gold. Most of the gold imports are captured in a category called 'articles with precious metals' (HS code 7115, with gold at 7115.90.05.30). The gyrations in gold imports from Switzerland make a compelling case for the challenges of imposing large tariffs on a country with which the United States has a large trade deficit. What happens when that changes? Indeed, just in the first three months of 2025, the U.S. deficit with Switzerland was $54.27 billion. It was the third largest U.S. deficit at that point. For all of 2024, the U.S. deficit with Switzerland had been just $38.46 billion. It's not surprising that might set off alarms in a White House focused on trade deficits. But by June, the deficit, while still larger than all of 2024, is down to $47.83 billion year to date, with three consecutive trade surpluses. It seems, at least for the time being, there's enough gold in the United States to cover for any uncertainty about the U.S. economy.
Yahoo
05-08-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
How Tariffs Might Be Impacting the U.S. Trade Deficit
Key Takeaways The U.S. trade deficit fell for the third month as President Donald Trump's tariff policies began taking hold. Census Bureau data showed that both imports and exports declined in June. Economists said that the recent decline mainly reflects normalization in international trade as businesses work through the imported inventory they stocked up on ahead of tariff announcements. While imports from China fell, trade from nearby countries picked up to fill the Donald Trump has said that one of the goals of higher tariffs was to close the U.S. trade deficit with other nations. So far, things appear to be moving in that direction, as the trade deficit in June declined to its lowest level in nearly two years. According to Census Bureau data released Tuesday, the U.S. trade deficit in goods and services was $60.2 billion in June, down more than 16% from May. It's the lowest trade deficit since September 2023. However, tariffs may not be affecting the trade deficit in the way some expected so far. Economists from Wells Fargo said some of the data indicate an 'unwinding of behavioral effects." After Trump unveiled his tariff plans earlier this year, businesses rushed to import products before higher import taxes could be applied, sending the trade deficit soaring. Now, with the tariffs largely set, the trade deficit is beginning to fall back to normal levels. 'Businesses pulled forward demand in Q1, resulting in a massive import surge. With a surplus of product and inventory on hand, imports fell in all three months of the second quarter, ' wrote Wells Fargo economists Shannon Grein and Tim Quinlan. Imports From China Decline, as Do U.S. Exports Still, imports of Chinese products declined by nearly 7% in June despite a trade truce that lowered tariffs. Since the start of the year, the share of imports from China has been more than cut in half, though trading with countries like Indonesia, Malaysia and Taiwan has increased, the data showed. 'Other trading partners in Asia have mostly filled the void, increasing their share by roughly the same amount,' said Matthew Martin, senior economist at Oxford Economics. While overall imports were lower by 3.7% in June, U.S. exports also took a step back. 'Exports are not poised to record strong growth going forward, but stronger foreign currencies and an opening up of foreign markets may bolster U.S. exports—though admittedly this will take time to play out,' wrote Nationwide Financial Markets Economist Oren Klachkin. Read the original article on Investopedia
